Half the federal budget savings projected over the first six years of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996, the federal welfare reform bill, will come from reductions in the Food Stamp Program. This highly effective federal food assistance program is the mainstay of America's nutrition safety net, providing food assistance to millions of hungry and food-insecure families each year. Expenditures for the Food Stamp Program are to be reduced by nearly $28 billion by the year 2002. These cuts include reduction in food stamp benefits for legal immigrants and able-bodied 18-50 year olds, and other reductions including freezing the food stamp standard deduction.

Arguments have been made that the shortfall in food due to cuts in the Food Stamp Program will be made up by increases in the amount of food provided by private charities. This analysis suggests that even under a "double-growth" scenario for expansion of distribution, with distribution increasing at a rate twice that occurring over the period 1991-1995, the Second Harvest network of nearly 200 food banks could provide less than 30% of the food needed. Under the most likely expansion scenario, the network will be able to cover less that one quarter of the total food shortfall over the next six years. Based on these results, it seems very unlikely that the private sector will be able to make up more than about a third of the shortfall resulting from cuts in the Food Stamp Program over this period.